Honeywell Forecasts Record Demand For New Business Jets

In its 34th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, Honeywell projects new business jet deliveries valued at $283 billion over the next decade, a record level. This represents 8,500 aircraft, with growth fueled by fractional operators and the new tax law.

“The combination of recent economic growth, increasing demand for fractional ownership and a steady cadence of new aircraft development and technology upgrades have produced record levels of demand in business aviation,” said Heath Patrick, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace Technologies. “Operators are increasing their usage rates and in turn manufacturers are continuing to ramp up production to keep pace with growing demand. Over the next decade, we expect these record-setting levels of deliveries and usage to continue.”

The report offers insights into current industry trends and longer-term developments, based on forecasting models and surveys of hundreds of business aviation operators worldwide. The mix of the 8,500 aircraft is similar to prior year forecasts and is approximately 35% light jets, 30% medium cabin and 35% large cabin, although the large cabin represent about 2/3 of the total value.

Key findings in the 2025 Honeywell Global Business Aviation Outlook include:

• New business jet deliveries in 2026 are expected to be 5% higher than in 2025.
• New business jet deliveries are expected to grow by 3% annually on average over the next 10 years.
• 91% of those surveyed expect to fly more or about the same in 2026 compared to 2025.
• 20% of operators globally have at least one aircraft on firm order – up from 17% a year ago. The figure was higher in 2025 for the subset of Part 135 and equivalent operators (such as private jet charters), where 28% of respondents reported having an aircraft on firm order.
• 89% of respondents consider “Performance” among their top three most important criteria when purchasing an aircraft, which compares with 82% from last year’s survey. “Cost” remains a distant second at 56%, which is down slightly from 60% last year.
• Demand for fractional ownership continues to lead industry growth with Midsize and Super Midsize being the jets of choice for these customers. Among those surveyed, 12% of operators of wholly owned business aircraft report owning fractional shares.
• Fractional fleets have grown more than 65% since 2019 to roughly 1,300 aircraft now in service.

Growth Factors

• Operators surveyed indicated that the return of 100% bonus depreciation following the signing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) earlier this year is expected to spur additional business aircraft purchase activity. This federal tax incentive allows businesses to deduct a significant portion of the cost of certain assets – including business jets – in the year they are placed into service.
• According to the survey findings, strong demand for fractional jet ownership is fueling large orders and contributing significantly to industry growth. The fractional ownership market has continued to outpace the industry in terms of growth, both in fleet sizes and flight activity. In fact, fractional fleets have grown more than 65% since 2019. Light, midsize, and super midsize jets comprise 80% of these fractional fleets.
• While 12% of current operators of wholly owned aircraft said they also own fractional shares, 15% more said they are considering purchasing them in the future. When asked for reasons why they are considering purchasing these shares, nearly 50% of respondents said they would increase the overall flying capacity of their operation, and 30% stated that they would utilize their fractional program to optimize their current flight operations.

Flight Activity

• Operators are flying their aircraft noticeably more in 2025 when compared to 2024, with business jet flight hours up about 3% year over year after flight hours were virtually flat from 2023 to 2024. This growth is primarily driven by private operators and fractional ownership companies, where demand for charter flights has stabilized at levels well above those of 2019, after fluctuating throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and the return of regularly scheduled airline routes.
• Corporate flight departments continue to lag in flight activity as they seek to optimize various cost elements of their flight operations. This is often achieved through the selective use of wholly owned aircraft, charter flights, and fractional ownership.
• When asked, operators expressed optimism about their outlook for future flight activity, with 28% saying they plan to fly more next year compared to this year and 64% saying they plan to fly about the same over the same time.

Regional Breakdown

• North America: North America is expected to receive roughly 70% of new jet deliveries over the next three years, as 17% of operators have aircraft on firm order, and the region comprises a massive 62% of the global fleet. There is an optimistic sentiment among operators in North America, driven by regulatory changes in the U.S., notably the introduction of bonus depreciation. Operators in the region follow the global trend of increased flight activity optimism, with just over 90% saying they plan to fly either the same number of hours or more over the next year.
• Europe: Europe is expected to receive about 14% of new jet deliveries over the next three years, and the portion of operators with aircraft on order is higher than the global average. Europe maintains 11% of the global business aviation fleet, but 29% of these operators report having at least one aircraft on firm order. The flight activity sentiment mirrors the global trends, with nearly 30% of operators expecting to fly more in the coming year and about 60% expecting to fly the same.
• Latin America: Latin America will accept 7% of global new jet deliveries over the next three years. 15% of the global fleet is based in the region and 19% of current operators there said they have aircraft on firm order. These operators tend to be more optimistic about their flight activity growth in the coming year, with 33% of them anticipating an increase.
• Remainder of the world: Asia-Pacific and the Middle East & Africa regions are forecasted to receive 5% and 3% of global deliveries, respectively. Both regions have hovered around these levels for the past few years, and the trend is expected to continue. Operators in these regions are less bullish on growth in flight activity than in other regions, but still, nearly 20% of the region’s current operators expect to increase their flight activity, with the remainder expecting to maintain the same level in the coming year. The Middle East is poised for growth as positive regulatory changes and improvements to airport infrastructure will make it easier for business aviation entities to establish operations in and fly throughout the region.

Aircraft Purchase Influences

• Aircraft performance and cost continue to be the two primary purchase drivers for buyers of business aircraft, with aircraft range being the most important specification. Other aircraft performance-related specifications, such as payload, field performance, and speed rank near the top of the list of purchase drivers.
• Buyers surveyed who are purchasing new aircraft prioritize customer support and technology more than buyers of pre-owned aircraft. Specifically, buyers of new aircraft place higher value on good response time and technical support when compared with buyers of pre-owned aircraft.
• When asked about aircraft technology, buyers of new aircraft said they consider advancements in fly-by-wire controls, connectivity and advanced safety features in their purchase decisions more than buyers of pre-owned aircraft.

Sustainability in Business Aviation

For the fifth consecutive year, Honeywell conducted an analysis of sustainability in business aviation, examining how operators are working to reduce their carbon footprint. Key findings in the report include:

• 81% of operators believe that developing new, more fuel-efficient aircraft and engines is at least moderately effective in helping to achieve sustainability goals.
• 61% think sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is at least moderately effective in reaching those same goals.
• Among those who are taking proactive steps to improve the sustainability of their operations, 60% are acquiring more fuel-efficient aircraft, 56% are using SAF and 31% are flying at more efficient cruise speeds.
• Regarding the adoption of SAF, cost and availability of the fuel continue to be the most significant challenges.

Report Methodology

Honeywell’s forecast methodology is based on multiple sources, including macroeconomic analyses, original equipment manufacturers’ production and development plans shared with the company, expert deliberations with aerospace industry leaders and detailed analysis of Cirium and WINGX industry data. Honeywell, in partnership with Seefeld Group and Ad Hoc Research, also conducted surveys of business aviation operators comprising 312 nonfractional operators representing a fleet of 1,199 business aircraft worldwide. The survey sample is representative of the entire industry in terms of geography, operation and fleet composition.