Honeywell Sees 8,500 New Business Jets Over Next Ten Years

Honeywell published its 33rd annual Global Business Aviation Outlook which projects 8,500 new business jet deliveries valued at $280 billion over the next decade. In addition, the survey shows that business jet manufacturers have ongoing plans to ramp up production in response to strong backlogs and stable book-to-bill ratios.

Next Five Years

The aviation industry has still been struggling with supply chain issues, even all this time after the pandemic, but Honeywell sees the logistics “getting healthier”, which will enable more deliveries of new aircraft next year. Honeywell expects new business jet deliveries in 2025 to be 12% higher than in 2024 (see the chart below).

Looking further out over the next five-years, the new jet purchase plans of business aviation operators remained on par with last year’s results, indicating that demand for new aircraft is stabilizing well above pre-pandemic levels. Large jets are expected to account for about two-thirds of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years. Overall, additions and replacements between 2025 and 2029 will be equivalent to about 18% of operators’ current fleets, and two thirds of these aircraft will go to operators in North America - consistent with prior years.

“The business aviation industry is in a prolonged period of healthy growth, and we don’t see that positive trend changing any time soon,” said Heath Patrick, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace Technologies. “Business aviation continues to see more users and, as a result, manufacturers are ramping up production to keep pace with growing demand, a trend we expect to continue for the foreseeable future. Despite a mixed macroeconomic environment and challenging geopolitical circumstances, operators are optimistic about their flight activity increasing in 2025 and beyond.”

New Aircraft Purchasing Drivers

Looking at demand by cabin size, Honeywell sees aircraft in large jet categories accounting for 37% of aircraft deliveries and 67% of aircraft expenditures over the next decade. Medium size cabins will be 29% and small cabins 35% of the deliveries.

When asked about the key factors driving their choice of aircraft, the survey respondents ranked range and low operating costs as numbers 1 and 2. The top 10 factors are below:

1. Range
2. Low Operating Cost
3. Maximum Payload/Number of Passenger
4. Field Performance
5. Speed
6. Availability of Spares
7. AOG Response Time
8. Residual Value
9. Low Acquisition Cost
10. Airframe Dimensions

The aircraft manufacturers (OEM’s) order books are very high, and one-to-one book-to-bill ratios are routine, meaning that for every aircraft they deliver they get a new order in to keep up the order books. All this means waiting times of 18-24 months for aircraft delivery are pretty standard.

Trends to Watch

The Honeywell survey identifeid several key industry trends to watch including:

• Demand for New Aircraft: New aircraft models introduced over recent years have driven increased demand for new aircraft. The survey indicates this trend will continue throughout this decade and into the early 2030s.
• Flight Activity & Utilization Levels: Flight activity is expected to increase in 2025 relative to 2024, especially for those who currently operate at high utilization levels. The introduction of new shared access models - various memberships and cards - has produced a flow of new customers using private aviation alternatives for their travel needs.
• Fractional Operators: Fractional operators may be the largest beneficiaries of new customer growth, and they are also benefitting from traditional operators wanting to supplement their current operations with fractional shares.